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The Grinch Stole Our Soft Landing: The Big Point

Professor Glenn A. Okun

The Rabid Capitalist: The Big Point is a brief summary of a detailed note available to paid subscribers.

According to Bloomberg Second Measure, upper middle class retail sales, including purchases from retailers such as Apple, Coach and Nordstrom, suffered their largest decline in two years for the third quarter of the year.  A median decline of 14% was recorded by Bloomberg.  High end malls in wealthy communities were not spared in the last quarter.

The data suggest that consumers with incomes in excess of $100,000 are exercising caution in their consumption.  This is troublesome since this consumer was largely responsible for the positive retail sales surprises that occurred over the last few quarters. One should take note because consumption is approximately seventy percent of GDP.

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