Professor Glenn A. Okun
The Rabid Capitalist: The Big Point is a summary of a detailed note available to paid subscribers.
The Rabid Capitalist has been cautioning its subscribers about the investment risks from an expansion of the Middle East conflict since last year (see http://therabidcapitalist.finance.blog/2023/12/16/terrorism-is-a-growing-inflation-threat/ and http://therabidcapitalist.finance.blog/2023/12/15/terrorism-is-inflationary/). These hostilities have embroiled other nations and their terrorist proxies. Geopolitical risk and terrorism threaten the supply of oil and gas as well as economic growth.
The crude oil markets have begun to react. Brent Crude (“CO1”) had its best week in over a year after President Biden acknowledged that he had discussed the possibility of Israel bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The catastrophic economic risk related to the Middle East conflict involves Iran. An escalation of its conflict with Israel could lead Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz. This would cause a collapse in the global oil supply.
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