The Rabid Capitalist

Professor Glenn A. Okun

Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on Oct 26, 2026, for a Nasdaq listing under “ANT,” led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley with 22 other underwriters. Reuters reports a roadshow as early as the week of Nov 9 and first trade before Thanksgiving (Nov 26). I have assembled this document as a briefing book from a number of sources, including the company’s S-1 filing. Anthropic’s Claude was used to collect and analyze data. The conclusions are my own.

Key Data Points

In the first half of 2026, revenue was $16.3 billion, representing year over year growth in excess of 1,300 percent. Second quarter revenue reached $11.6 billion with $974 million of GAAP operating income and a nineteen percent adjusted operating margin. First half operating cash flow was $3.9 billion. Anthropic is sitting on $131.7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter.

The firm has more than 11,900 customers with more than $100,000 of trailing revenues, up from roughly 950 last year. It disclosed compute commitments of approximately $657 billion across eight counterparties, and an estimated $125–150 billion of additional TPU capacity for 2028 to 2031.

Our take. The business is exceptional. But its growth rate has started to slow, with comparable quarter revenue growth declining to approximately 45% from 144% for the second quarter. Margins are expected to remain negative in 2027.

However, public stockholders will have limited influence. A Founder LLC holds 50.1% of the votes, and the Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a majority of the board of directors.

Important Findings

Area	Finding	Assessment
Revenue quality	5–7% of 9M26 revenue came from customers violating usage policy or commercial terms (e.g., distillation); enforcement stepped up in Aug–Sep	Negative: a one-time headwind to Q4/Q1 growth
Metric definitions	Run-Rate Revenue annualizes a trailing 28 days × 13; NRR of ~900% reflects a very young base	Caution: neither is a forecast
Concentration	No customer >10% of 9M26 revenue; non-top 5 share up to 79%; 48% of revenue via CSP marketplaces; 58% of receivables from CSPs	Mixed: diversified end demand, concentrated channel
Commitments	~$657bn named, mostly non-cancelable; SpaceX AI cancelable after Jan/Mar 2027 on 90 days’ notice	Key risk: high operating leverage in both directions
Related parties	Amazon/Google/Microsoft/Broadcom/AMD/NVIDIA are investors, suppliers and competitors	Watch: conflicts of interest
Legal	$1.5bn Bartz copyright settlement (2025); $1.3bn accrued legal expenses at 6/30/26; Pentagon ‘supply chain risk’ label upheld by D.C. Circuit (Sept 25)	Negative overhang
Governance	PBC + LTBT elects board majority; Founder LLC holds 50.1% of votes; controlled-company exemption for nominating committee	Negative for minority holders
Dilution	SBC 13% of revenue; RSU settlement at IPO; PBF issuance up to 2% per +50% price milestone; NPA draws settle in shares	Negative: ~2–4% per year of dilution likely
Auditor	Change in independent accountant disclosed (S-1 p.334)	Neutral: review the details
Lock-ups	Staggered releases on day 1, 27, 48, 62 and 76, then after FY26 earnings; 180-day and extended 365-day tranches	Supply overhang Dec 2026 to Mar 2027

The Bull-Bear Analysis

The Bull Case:

• We are witnessing the fastest enterprise adoption in software history. Anthropic has approximately 1,900 customers with greater than $1 million in revenues. Almost half of the Fortune 500 are customers.
• Current unit economics are attractive: positive Q2 GAAP operating margins and positive first half operating cash flow.
• It leads in agentic coding and knowledge work (Claude Code, Cowork). 
• The company is well funded. It has over $200 billion of cash and undrawn partner financing.

The Bear Case:

• A $1.5 trillion valuation would only be justified if the firm delivers great execution.
• Growth is slowing.
• There is some evidence of price pressure. The Haiku price was cut. Some large enterprises are moving to internal AI development.
• The macroeconomic environment has become less supportive. 10-year yields are near 5%. There is some stress in AI credit (i.e., CoreWeave).

The Rabid Capitalist will continue to monitor this situation.

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